COVID-19 Trends, June 13, 2020

This is summary of COVID-19 trends today, by countries, US states, and California counties.

As of today, I’m redefining a “daily case hotspot” to be 200+ DCPM (daily cases per million), down from 500, after reviewing the heights to which the major European countries rose. 500 DCPM does happen, and is happening now, but I’m feeling that 200 DCPM is severe enough to quality as “hot.” The definition of “daily cases warmspot” remains at 100 DCPM.

Countries of the World

Summary: daily cases: cold (17 DCPM); growth : warm (1% and slightly cooling)

Source graphs are here.

  • Daily-cases hotspots (>200 DCPM, i.e. daily cases per million) are Qatar (640!), Bahrain (400), Chile (325), Oman (230), and Armenia.
  • Daily-cases warmspots (>100 DCPM), are Peru (160), Brazil (160), Panama (150), Kuwait (150), Sweden (110), and Saudi Arabia (110).
  • The the countries which made earlier news (China, South Korea, Italy, Spain) are no longer even warm. It is now news, and sparks fear of a “second wave,” when China has a handful of new cases.
  • Central/South America continues to be generally warm/hot.
  • Brazil is turning the corner right now, today, as its growth trendline has crossed zero toward negative. If this persists, Brazil has peaked and will now begin to drop in daily new cases.
  • The United States has never gotten warm as a whole (though it has warm regions), and remains cool at 65 DCPM.
  • There are many growth hotspots (>5% daily growth in new cases) among the DCPM-warmest countries: Macedonia, Saudi Arabia, Barhain, Sweden, Moldova, Equador, Azerbaijan, South Africa, Panama, Dominican Republic. These countries are the most troubling because they both (1) have a relatively large number of cases per capita, and (2) Are growing very quickly.
  • It is worth noting that most of the largest countries in the world, however, are not hot in either sense. The large countries have mostly seen the virus rise already, and are now seeing it decline.

United States

Summary: daily cases: cool (65 DCPM); growth : neutral (0% and slightly warming)

Source graphs are here.

  • There are no daily-cases hotspot states (>200 daily cases per million, or DCPM).
  • These states are daily-cases warmspots (>100 DCPM): Arkansas, Maryland, Iowa, North Carolina, Nebraska, Arizona, and Alabama. All are just slightly warm: under 130 DCPM.
  • In other words, there aren’t any states that currently have a lot of cases, adjusted for population. New York at its peak had 1400 DCPM; no current state is even 10% of that.
  • However, there are a lot of growth hotspots right now, i.e. states which are seeing a more that 5% daily growth in new cases.
  • These growth hotspots are South Carolina (8% daily growth in new cases), Arkansas (8%), Arizona (7%), Nevada (5%), and Alabama (5%).
  • Furthermore, all of these growth hotspots are accelerating: they are seeing their already-high growth rates, rising daily.
  • So this is a concerning combination—high growth of new cases and warming—but because none of these states have very many cases, historically speaking, it is not yet a calamity. Only if this persists for months will it be a calamity.
  • The trajectory of past COVID-19 graphs, for regions now mostly recovered, suggests that this will not go on like this for months. But it’s possible.
  • On the whole, about half of states are growing, while the other half are shrinking.
  • California remains cool at 75 DCPM, but is a growth warmspot at 3% daily growth.
  • Testing is very good for all states, from about 4% of population tested for the worst, to 18% for the best.
  • Almost all states are testing less than 10% positive at this point. For the mostly-recovered first-wave states of New York and New Jersey, it’s 1% positive. For recovering second-wave states it is also very low: Michigan (1%) and Illinois (3%) and Louisiana (5%)

California Counties

Summary: daily cases: cool (75 DCPM); growth : warm (3% and stable)

Source graphs are here.

  • Los Angeles remains by far the largest source of daily cases; the state’s numbers generally follow Los Angeles, and will continue to until some other counties start to have total numbers in the ballpark of Los Angeles.
  • Los Angeles is, however, neither a daily-cases hotspot nor a growth hotspot. Daily cases per million (DCPM) is 130, which makes it “warm” but not “hot.” Growth is 1% daily, which is warm.
  • The only daily-cases hotspot counties are Imperial (730 DCPM) and Kings (260 DCPM).
  • The only daily-cases warmspot is Los Angeles (130 DCPM).
  • So by population, almost all counties have relatively few cases.
  • However, there are many growth hotspots which, if they persist, will eventually result in daily-cases hotspot counties. These are Madera (10% growth in daily cases), Stanislaus (8%), San Joaquin (7%), Contra Costa (7%), Monterey (6%), Riverside (5%), and Merced (5%).
  • Most other counties are daily-cases warmspots (>1% growth).
  • Just a handful are cooling in daily growth. Notable among these is Imperial, which remains a daily-cases hotspot but has finally peaked and is declining.

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