COVID-19 Trends, June 15, 2020

This is summary of COVID-19 trends today, by countries, US states, and California counties.

Graph of the Day

That’s Brazil, turning the corner toward negative growth of daily new cases. I.e., that’s Brazil starting to recover:

Countries of the World

Summary: daily cases: cold (17 DCPM); growth : cool (0.9% and slightly cooling)

Source graphs are here.

  • There are five daily-cases hotspot counties (>200 daily cases per million, or DCPM): Qatar (620), Bahrain (410), Chile (350), Oman (240), and Armenia (230).
  • Three of those five are still growing in daily cases: Bahrain (2%), Chile (1%), Oman (3%). Armenia is stable at 0% (turning the corner now toward negative growth); and Qatar is now seeing -2% daily growth in new cases.
  • However, the growth rate of all five is shrinking (cooling). I.e., all of the hottest countries in daily cases, are trending toward recovery.
  • There are six daily-cases warmspots (>100 DCPM): Panama, Brazil, Peru, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Sweden.
  • Saudia Arabia is growing at 7% in daily cases, and accelerating in growth rate.
  • Sweden is growing 5%, and also accelerating. This puts it wildly at odds with the rest of Europe, which has recovered to the point that no other European countries even appear in my top-25-DCPM graphs.
  • Panama is also growing 5%, but its growth rate is decelerating.
  • The other three warmspots are quickly cooling now: Brazil, Peru, and Kuwait, all with negative growth and decelerating (Brazil turned the corner just a couple days ago).
  • The world as a whole continues to see more new cases every day, with a daily growth rate of 0.9% and decelerating. So, the world as a whole has just just transitioned from “warm” (>1%) to “cool” (<1%) in growth.
  • There are about 25 countries which are growth hotspots (>5% daily growth of new cases), all relatively small in population. Georgia (the republic) leads at 20%.
  • The United States remains cool at 67 DCPM, and cool at 0.3% growth of new cases. It is neither a daily-cases warmspot, nor a growth warmspot. However, its growth is very slightly accelerating.

United States

Summary: daily cases: cool (67 DCPM); growth : neutral (0.3% and slightly warming)

Source graphs are here.

  • There are no daily-cases hotspot states (>200 DCPM).
  • There are seven daily-cases warmspot states: Arkansas (140), Arizona (130), North Carolina (120), Maryland (110), Iowa (110), Alabama (110), and Utah (110).
  • Three of them are also growth hotspots, a troubling combination: Arkansas (8%), Arizona (6%), and Alabama (6%).
  • Utah and North Carolina are growth warmspots at 4% growth in daily new cases.
  • Maryland and Iowa are showing negative growth, and have for about a month now; they are definitely on a recovery path.
  • South Carolina, while not quite a warmspot at 90 DCPM, is notable as the fastest-growing state of the top-25 in DCPM, at 9% daily. That’s a very fast growth rate and will likely bring it into the warmspot zone very soon.
  • California is cool in daily cases at 78 DCPM, but is a growth warmspot at 2% and slightly rising.

California Counties

Summary: daily cases: cool (78 DCPM); growth : warm (2% and stable)

Source graphs are here.

  • Imperial county continues to be by far the hardest-hit, white-hot with 800 daily-cases-per-million, or DCPM. Several recent days have had DCPM in excess of 2000.
  • Imperial is also a growth hotspot, growing 6% per day.
  • The population of Imperial County is 180,000, making it a relatively small contributor to total state numbers (Los Angeles County, with population of 10 million, has had 70,000 total cases so far, versus 4,000 for Imperial).
  • Kings County is the only other daily-cases hotspot (220 DCPM).
  • Los Angeles is daily-cases warm at 140 DCPM. However, Los Angeles is no longer a growth warmspot (>1%), as its growth rate has just dropped to 0.9%. The growth rate is very slightly declining in Los Angeles.
  • There are no other daily-cases warmspot counties.
  • The growth hotspots (>5% growth in daily cases) among the top-25-DCPM countiesare San Joaquin (8%), Sutter (8%), Imperial (6%), and Monterey (5%).

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