Greg Ferrar Data Analysis

This is summary of COVID-19 trends today, by countries, US states, and California counties.

Summary

	Daily Cases	Daily Growth
World	cold (22 DCPM)	warm (2.2% and rising)
United States	warm (140 DCPM)	hot (6% and rising)
California	warm (110 DCPM)	very warm (4.1% and rising)

Graph of the Day

The Gang of Six (Arizona, Arkansas, Alabama, South and North Carolina, and Utah), which were the big news a couple weeks ago, show trendlines bending toward recovery in growth rate (top line Idaho shown because it is now where they used to be):

Countries of the World

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Country Hotspots: Barhain, Qatar, Oman, Panama, and Chile

The graph below shows the daily-cases hotspot counties in DCPM, plus the largest daily-cases warmspot counties (United States and Brazil). The upper red line is Qatar, long the worst in the world but now quickly recovering. Its neighbor Bahrain came on a little later, and appears to be bending toward recovery, but is currently the leader in DCPM. The United States (lower orange) and Brazil (lower red-ping) are not daily-cases hotspots, but are warm and rising:

Looking at the rope chart for these same six, the news is pretty good for everyone but the United States and Brazil. All the hotspots are declining in growth rate of daily new cases, and Qatar and Chile have turned the corner toward negative daily growth in new cases. Brazil is growing in new cases at 2% per day and very slightly accelerating, so what looked like a turn toward recovery there a few weeks ago, has faltered. The United States is looking very bad at 6% growth in daily new cases and accelerating rapidly; it has become a growth hotspot:

States of the United States

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

The Gang of Six Are Looking Slightly Better

The Game of Six (Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, North and South Carolina) were the biggest news a couple weeks ago, as they took off on a strong upward growth trajectory. These days, other states are taking off, but these six are starting to look a little better. They don’t look so great on the DCPM chart (but see growth, below):

But in the growth rate “rope chart,” we are starting to see some good signs. The colors are really hard to distinguish here, but top to bottom, these are Idaho (shown for comparison; more about Idaho below), Arizona, South Carolina, Arkansas, Utah, Alabama, and North Carolina. The bottom four are either horizontal in growth or, in the case of North Carolina, clearly trending downward. None of these have yet turned the corner toward negative growth—all of them are still seeing more and more cases each day—but this is the very early sign that at least four of them are trending toward recovery. The worst two—Arizona and South Carolina—are still looking pretty bad, but they used to be more in the Idaho category, so their lines, too, are just starting to bend toward recovery:

States That Already Had It, Aren’t Getting it Again

The trend remains: states (and other regions) seem to have a metaphorical “immune system” which prevents them from getting a bad wave of the virus, after they’ve already had one. COVID-19 does not strike twice in the same place. States which have had waves, and have recovered, include Washington, New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Michigan, Illinois, and Louisiana, and most other northeastern states. With the possible exception of Louisiana, none of these appear in my graphs because all have recovered and appear to be staying recovered.

The Rest of the States are Getting It

It feels like most of the rest of the United States, is now getting the virus and entering epidemic trajectory. The first-wave states (above), got it and recovered; the Gang of Six got it and appear to be showing a trend toward recovery. All the rest of the top-25 warmest states in DCPM, are now growing in new cases:

A Prediction of the Broad Course of COVID-19 in the US

There’s not much good news here for the United States, but the broad ray of hope is: though every states has gotten its own wave, or appears to be on its way to getting a wave, the strong trend is that once a state gets over its wave, it doesn’t see a large wave again.

If this persists, there is an end in sight, though it’s months away. The first wave recovered; the Gang of Six will recover soonish; this new large wave has most of the remaining states in it, and will likely follow a similar trajectory to recovery in the next two or three months. After that, most states will have seen their wave, and assuming second waves really don’t happen, the disease will have run out of states to infect. The country will start its trend toward recovery. This isn’t certain—maybe there really will be major second waves—but this is my prediction based on the disease trajectory we’ve seen just about everywhere.

California Counties

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Los Angeles Still Rules in Total Cases

Let’s look at a graph I don’t usually focus on: the total cases graph. In it, we can see that (1) Los Angeles is still the source of COVID-19 cases in California, and (2) it’s accelerating (its recent dots are above its trendline). So for all the focus I put on other counties and their growth rates, the state totals are still all about Los Angeles:

Daily-Cases Hotspots: Imperial, Kings, Tulare, Riverside, San Joaquin, Los Angeles

Imperial remains an off-the-chart daily-cases hotspot with an outrageous 900 DCPM (but recovering; see next section). The other daily-cases hotspots, still trending upward in this chart, are (downward from the top) Kings, Tulare, Riverside, San Joaquin, Los Angeles. Congratulations, Los Angeles, you’ve made it to daily-cases hotspot status:

All of the warmest counties in DCPM, are still rising in daily cases, too (above the zero line in the following graph), except Imperial, which is now shrinking at 2% per day. Imperial is recovering, but everyone else is doing poorly. Almost all of these top-25-DCPM counties are growth warmspots. There are a few counties whose growth rates, though still positive, are trending downward (Monterey, San Benito), and some are holding steady near zero (Kings, Tehama), but the overall trend is toward more and more cases, and toward accelerating growth rates. By the way, that’s Yuba at the top, with a huge 20% daily growth in new cases; at least it’s smallish. (Visit the live version to see which county is which.)

Definitions

DCPM	Daily cases per million
Daily-cases warmspot	>100 DCPM but <200 DCPM
Daily-cases hotspot	>200 DCPM
Growth warmspot	>1% daily growth in new cases
Growth hotspot	>5% daily growth in new cases

This is summary of COVID-19 trends today, by countries, US states, and California counties.

Summary

	Daily Cases	Daily Growth
World	cold (17 DCPM)	warm (1.6%) and slightly warming
United States	cool (91 DCPM)	very warm (4.2%) and warming
California	cool (96 DCPM)	very warm (3.7%) and warming

Graph of the Day

Here is the leading cluster, and following cluster of US States, in daily cases per million:

Countries of the World

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Qatar Recovers, Bahrain Not So Much

Qatar is still the hottest country in the world in daily cases, but just barely now; it has dropped to join its neighbor Bahrain at 380 DCPM. Bahrain, which has recently been second place and has generally moved together with Qatar, is continuing a slight upward trend even while Qatar recovers, and will soon be number one:

Both Qatar and Bahrain are headed in a good direction growth-wise, though, having peaked in growth and now falling, or soon to be falling, in daily new cases:

Central/South America is Hot But Heading Toward Recovery

The epicenter we’ve been tracking in Central/South America is still a daily-cases hotspot (especially Chile at 340 DCPM and Panama at 210 DCPM):

But all the warmest countries of Central/South America are cooling in growth; three of them have crossed zero growth and are now shrinking, or soon to be shrinking, in daily cases. Only Panama is still growing, and is a growth warmspot at 2%; but Panama is visibly trending downward toward zero growth. If these trends persist, the Central/South America epidemic will be in full recovery mode in a week or two:

The United States Growth is The New News

The big news among the countries is The United States. This graph is a very busy, but what it’s showing is that the green upward diagonal line, the United States, is now third-worst among the warmest DCPM countries, in growth rate. The United States is growing fast at 4.2%, a very warm growth warmspot, and is accelerating. No other large country is looking this bad right now; only Honduras and the Dominican Republic are ahead of the United States in growth:

One saving factor is that the United States still doesn’t yet have a lot of cases, adjusted for population; at 91 DCPM it isn’t even a daily-cases warmspot. But it’s headed there quickly:

States of the United States

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

The Gang of Six, and Gang B

We’ve been watching the Gang of Six for a while, and they, especially Arizona (the sole national daily-cases hotspot state at 270 DCPM), continue to lead the nation in cases. Just behind them is a group of states I’m calling Gang B, which is not yet warm in DCPM, but seems to be headed there:

The Gang of Six is Losing Members

There’s not a lot to be happy about on the United States COVID-19 Trends scene, but here’s one little happy place: North Carolina and Alabama (two of the Gang of Six) are peeling away from the group, and are now showing a sustained downward trend in growth rate. If these trends persist, these two states will peak and begin to decline in daily cases in about two weeks:

Gang B is Also Losing Members

Similarly, the less-hit eight states of Gang B, whole mostly growing and accelerating, do show two rays of hope: Louisiana and Mississippi are actually shrinking now in daily cases, and their shrinkage rates are accelerating:

Theory: Regions Develop Metaphorical Immunity to COVID-19

This is particular good to hear about Louisiana, because that state does not belong in this wave in my worldview, having already had its own wave a couple months ago. The pattern I’ve been seeing, and the theory I’m developing, is that once a region “catches” the virus and then “gets over” the virus, it is effectively immune from getting the virus again; it has a metaphorical immune response that stomps out any new pockets of reemergence in a matter of days. If a second, high, sustained wave had actually come to Louisiana, that would have been evidence that COVID-19 lightning really can strike the same place twice, and bad news for future of the pandemic in the rest of the world.

With this trend in Louisiana, my theory survives: Regions develop a metaphorical (non-biological) immune response to COVID-19 after being hit hard by it, and never get it badly again.

A plausible mechanism for this immunity is that it is based in testing capacity, in health care system capacity, and in fear. After a wave passes (defeated by these three factors), the three factors remain behind in force. Health care capacity, testing capacity, and fear of the virus, remain greatly elevated. I suggest that if the virus even peeks its head in the door again, it is met by vastly greater capacity and vigilance than the first time, and is quickly defeated. In this way, the metaphorical immune response of a region functions much like the biological immune system of an organism.

A corollary to this: like a biological immune response, a regional immune response can be expected to fade away, probably in a matter of months and certainly in a matter of years, as testing capacity and health care system capacity are cut because they are perceived as no longer needed (and expensive), and as the population’s fear recedes into distant memory. A true second wave, if it hits, will hit after this recession. With luck, by that time, biological immunity in the form of a vaccine will be available and widely deployed.

California Counties

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Hotspot Counties: Imperial et al

Imperial (920 DCMP) is literally off the chart in this graph, which I’ve scaled to show the other counties better. This is a “big picture” graph, just intended to show how counties are broadly doing in DCPM: most counties are cool or cold. See the interactive charts if want to know which line is which. Only Imperial and Kings (270 DCPM) are daily-cases hotspots. Warmspots are Los Angeles (160 DCPM), Riverside (140 DCPM), Tulare (120 DCPM), San Joaquin (120 DCPM), Marin (105 DCPM), San Bernadine (105 DCPM), and Kern (100 DCPM):

Warm Counties are Mostly Getting Warmer

Focusing on the nine hottest counties, the trend is clear: with the only outlier as Imperial (recovering rapidly), all counties which are warm, are getting warmer, and their rate of warming is also accelerating. This is a bad combination. The one mitigating factor to remember here is that none of them, yet, have that many cases in DCPM, so there are still some weeks of runway for recovery without things ever getting really bad:

Definitions

DCPM	Daily cases per million
Daily-cases warmspot	>100 DCPM but <200 DCPM
Daily-cases hotspot	>200 DCPM
Growth warmspot	>1% daily growth in new cases
Growth hotspot	>5% daily growth in new cases

This is summary of COVID-19 trends today, by countries, US states, and California counties.

Summary

	Daily Cases	Daily Growth
World	cold (23 DPCM)	warm (1.3% and steady)
United States	cool (82 DCPM)	warm (3% and warming)
California	cool (93 DPCM)	warm (2.5% and warming)

Graph of the Day: Gang of Six Hospitalizations

Today’s COVID-19 Trends Graph of the Day is a new analysis of hospitalizations by state, focused on the hottest states in daily-cases-per-million, and suggesting that the surges are caused at least in part by an increase in new infections, and not just by increased testing:

Countries of the World

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Hotspot Countries: Qatar, Bahrain, Chile

Worldwide, the only daily-cases hotspots are Qatar, Bahrain, and Chile, in the 300-400 DCPM range. Close behind, right around 200 DCPM, so on the edge of being daily-cases hotspots, are Panama, Oman, and Armenia.

All six of these are seeing shrinking growth rates (below), and only Panama is actually growing at all anymore (the daily-cases trendlines, above, sometimes take a few days to notice a peak). So all the hottest countries in the world are trending toward recovery, and five of the six have already peaked and are shrinking, or soon will be, in daily new cases:

United States: Still Not Even Warm

The United States lost its weeks-long downward trend in late May, and is now growing moderately and steadily in daily new cases. But at 81 DCPM, it is still not even a daily-cases warmspot:

The growth rate in daily new cases of the United States, is 3% and accelerating. This puts the United States solidly in the category of growth warmspot:

A Few Upcoming: Saudi Arabia, Modova, and Sweden?

Three countries are daily-cases warmspots with rising trendlines: Saudi Arabia, Moldova, and Sweden:

However, in the growth rate graph below, we can see that Sweden, after its brief surge, appears to be swiftly returning to join the rest of Europe in recovery. Saudi Arabia and Moldova are still growing at a relatively high 4% daily, but at least that rate is stable and not climbing. If it persists, however, these will become our next daily-cases hotspots:

States of the United States

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

The Gang of Six: Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, North and South Carolina, and Utah

These six states continue to be the only daily-cases warmspots, and Arizona is the sole daily-cases hotspot in the United States. But there have been some very hot days in Arizona this week, as shown by all those blue dots above the line:

The gang may be losing some members soon, though, as Alabama and North Carolina are showing pronounced downward tends in their growth rates. The other four are still looking quite bad; South Carolina, Arkanas, and especially Arizona are growth hotspots. This means that Arizona has every bad thing it could have right now: daily-cases hotspot, growth hotspot, and rapidly accelerating:

Gang of Six: Higher Testing, or More Infections?

The Gang of Six is certainly seeing a rise in reported daily cases. But is it due to the higher testing that is now being performed, or is it because there is actually a rise in the number of infections (or both)? To try to answer this sort of question, I have added a new graph of daily hospitalizations per million, by state. I would expect increased testing to have almost no effect on hospitalizations, while in increase in actual infections should result in an increase in hospitalizations. The graph for the Gang of Six is below (minus North Carolina, for which I have no hospitalization data), and clearly indicates that hospitalizations are rising in most or all of these states, suggesting that a rise in underlying infection rates, and not just a rise in testing, is the cause of the rise in daily reported cases:

California is Slowly Sliding Downhill

Thanks to one good day just now, California has managed to avoid being called a daily-cases warmspot today; but it’s close at 92 DCPM:

California’s growth rate continues to rise: 2.5% new daily cases and warming. So it’s not in terrible shape right now—cool in daily cases and warm in growth—but it’s slowly heading in the wrong direction:

California Counties

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Hotspots and Warmspots: Imperial, Kings, Riverside, Los Angeles, and San Joaquin

Imperial, Kings, Riverside, Los Angeles, and San Joaquin are the only daily-cases warmspots in California (Imperial and Kings are daily-cases hotspots):

These five counties are mostly heating up still, though Imperial seems to be continuing its recovery, and Los Angeles is fairly stable in growth rate. None of them are growth hotspots:

The Warmest Counties Keep Getting Warmer

The twenty-five warmest counties, shown below (using the interactive version to figure out which is which), are showing a very unhappy trend: with the single exception of Imperial, all counties are growing in new cases, and almost all are accellerating in growth rate:

The San Francisco Bay Area

I’m based part-time in the San Francisco Bay Area, and a number of readers of this blog are also. The Bay Area doesn’t rise to prominence in my normal reporting, which is a good thing, since I’m reporting hotspots. But for comparison, here are the six Bay Area counties in the DCMP chart. None of them are daily-cases hotspots; none are even daily-cases warmspots; most are fairly stable in daily cases, and only Monterey shows any signs of becoming a warmspot in the near future.

And here are the Bay Area counties in the growth chart (the two blue lines are Alameda, upper; and San Mateo, lower). Only two of them are growth hotspots and accelerating: Santa Cruz and Santa Clara. Monterey is a growth hotspot but stable. The other three are looking good in growth, with negative growth rates and cooling. Remember: none of these are even warm in total cases yet, so a high growth rate isn’t yet a serious problem:

Definitions

DCPM	Daily cases per million
Daily-cases warmspot	>100 DCPM but <200 DCPM
Daily-cases hotspot	>200 DCPM
Growth warmspot	>1% daily growth in new cases
Growth hotspot	>5% daily growth in new cases

This is summary of COVID-19 trends today, by countries, US states, and California counties.

Summary

	Daily Cases	Daily Growth
World	cold (24 DCPM)	warm (+2.2%)
United States	cool (76 DCPM)	warm (+2%)
California	cool (90 DCPM)	warm (+2.2%)

Graph of the Day: Los Angeles is Trending Toward Recovery

Los Angeles County is the major contributor of cases to California. It is now showing a downward trajectory in growth of daily new cases (it is no longer a growth warmspot). If this line crosses zero, which I would expect in a few days from this graph trend, it will start to see decreasing daily new cases, and California will be strongly pulled downward in daily new cases as well:

Countries of the World

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Hotspot Countries: Qatar, Barhain, Chile, Oman, and Armenia

Daily-cases hotspots Qatar and neighbor Bahrain continue to be first and second place in the world, with 470 and 360 DCPM respectively; but not for long. The cause of their exceptionally high DCPM may be their dense work camps for their oil fields, whicch have seen an epidemic of the virus. But Chile is in close pursuit, and seems likely to pass Bahrain soon. At the bottom of the graph we see Oman and Armenia, just having risen to become daily-cases hotspots:

Meanwhile, Qatar and Bahrain seem to be getting a handle on the epidemic, with Qatar having peaked weeks ago, and Bahrain peaking now. This graph brings good news: all five of the hottest countries in DCPM, are either quickly recovering, or sharply headed toward a recovery position (<0% growth):

It is worth noting that all five of these countries are relatively small: Chile at 19M, Qatar at 3M, Bahrain at 2M, Oman at 5M, Armenia at 3M. Compare with India or China at over a billion; or with the United States or Brazil at 350M or 200M. So there are no large countries, which are also daily-cases hotspots.

Brazil Continues Months of Steady Improvement in COVID-19 Growth Rate

One large country that might have become a daily-cases hotspot, but now probably won’t, is Brazil. Brazil is currently a daily-cases warmspot at 137 DCPM. Brazil has been making daily news in large news outlets with big headlines like Bloomberg’s, “Brazil Posts Record Daily Virus Cases as Disease Spreads Inland.” This kind of article, while factually accurate, can be written every day for any region that is growing in cases; every day will have a record number of daily cases, on average. So this kind of article, especially if repeated every few days, does not seem to me to be of much value. Worse, this headline occurred recently, during an extended downward trend in Brazil’s growth rate (daily cases still rise until the downward trendline crosses zero). To me, Brazil looks like it is doing steadily better, so I’ve written the headline I’d like to see in the news, above this section. Here’s the graph:

United States is Still Growing

Another country that might become a daily-cases hotspot is the United States, but it will have to become a daily-cases warmspot first. With its daily-cases trendline at 76 DCPM, the United States is well shy of the 100 that would make it a warmspot, but it is experiencing growth in daily cases (unlike, say, Brazil), and its most recent few days show an alarming sharply-upward mini-trend. That could just be noise, but even without it, the United States is not currently getting better:

The growth chart shows the United States passing 2% growth; it is solidly a growth warmspot at this point, though it still has a long way to go to become a growth hotspot. But contrast it with Brazil’s growth curve above; this is what an undesirable growth curve looks like. Above zero and rising:

India Does Not Have A Serious Problem

Let’s briefly talk about India, just to say, we don’t really need to talk about India. It gets some press because it is fourth in the world in total cases, but that’s just because it’s huge. At 11 DCPM, it’s so small it doesn’t even register in the top-25. And its growth rate is looking fairly good: positive but descending for months now (like, say, Brazil). If these trends continue, India will never be a problem:

States of the United States

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Hotspots States: Just Arizona

We now have a hotspot state, barely. Arizona has risen to 210 DCPM. The rest of the Gang of Six are warm but not yet hot; see below.

The Gang of Six: Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, North and South Carolina, and Utah

These six states continue to be the largest in DCPM. Arizona is way ahead at 210 DCPM, but the others are all daily-cases warmspots in the 115 to 145 DCPM range. This graph is not looking good:

The growth graph is also not looking good for these six. Three of them are growth hotspots, and the other three are growth warmspots, and five of them are accelerating. So they’re not only fairly hot in daily cases, and not only getting hotter every day, but the rate at which they’re getting hotter every day is also rising (except North Carolina). This is everything we don’t want to see in a graph. North Carolina is the one ray of hope in this dark and miserable storm; its growth graph has peaked and appears to be starting downward toward recovery. Recovery is still months away at this trajectory, but from my experience with these sorts of graphs, I think it very likely that North Carolina’s growth rate will turn downward more sharply in the days to come:

Florida and Georgia are Closing In on the Gang of Six

Behind the Gang of Six, there are a couple wannabes. Florida and Georgia are not yet daily-cases warmspots (70 and 80 DCPM), but they are rising:

And the growth graphs for Florida and Georgia also show similarities to the Gang of Six: they are growth warmspots—Florida is nearly a growth hotspot—and accelerating. We might end up with a Gang of Eight:

California is Still Looking Kinda Bad

California continues to rise, now approaching a daily-cases warmspot at 90 DCPM.

California’s growth rate also continues to rise; it is solidly a growth warmspot now at 2.2%:

California Counties

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Hotspots and Warmspots: California Counties Are Almost All Getting Worse

Imperial and Kings remain the only daily-cases hotspots, at 900 and 250 DCPM. By the way, 900 is really high. For comparison, here they are plotted with all the hottest counties; the top blue line is Imperial, the next red line is Kings:

The very busy graph below shows growth of all the hottest counties. There is little hope determining which line is which in this graph; go to the interactive one if you want to know. My purpose in showing this graph is just to show the broad pattern of the hottest counties: they are almost all rising in new cases (above the 0% line), and almost all accelerating.

The graph for all counties is just as bad: we are seeing growth and acceleration in almost all counties of California. This is a terrible pattern, and I sure hope it shifts soon:

But, Los Angeles is Looking Better

One ray of hope is Los Angeles, which has a massive influence on the total state numbers, due to its enormous population. Though it is a warmspot at 140 DCPM, and still growing slightly daily,

it is also shrinking in growth rate. The growth curve is now angled downward, at 0.2% growth and declining, which makes it one of very few California counties seeing a downward growth trajectory (the others are Humboldt, San Mateo, Imperial, and Alameda). If Los Angeles turns the corner toward negative growth and starts declining in daily cases, as seems imminent, it will start to pull California’s numbers down very strongly:

Definitions

DCPM	Daily cases per million
Daily-cases warmspot	>100 DCPM but <200 DCPM
Daily-cases hotspot	>200 DCPM
Growth warmspot	>1% daily growth in new cases
Growth hotspot	>5% daily growth in new cases

This is summary of COVID-19 trends today, by countries, US states, and California counties.

Summary

	Daily Cases	Daily Growth
World	cold (16 DCPM)	warm (1.1%)
United States	cool (70 DCPM)	warm (1.0%)
California	cool (86 DCPM)	warm (2.5%)

Graph of the Day

The six US states which are currently growing strongly—the latest wave of hard-hit states—are also seeing growth of their positive test rate, suggesting a genuine growth of infections there:

Countries of the World

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Hotspot Countries

There are five daily-cases hotspot counties (>200 DCPM): Qatar, Bahrain, Chile, Oman, and Armenia:

All of these five daily-cases hotspot countries are trending downward in growth rate. Oman, Chile, and Armenia are still growing in daily new cases; Qatar and Bahrain have turned the corner and are now shrinking in daily cases; but all five are trending toward recovery, as shown by the downward trend of their growth rates:

The “rope chart” as a whole is showing most of the daily-warmest countries also trending downward in growth rate; most of these are still growing in new cases, but their growth rates are mostly angled downward, indicating a trend toward recovery. Only three show a really problematic high-growth-and-accelerating (the top three at the top right in the graph below: green, yellow, and red), Honduras, Panama, and Moldava:

United States (among the countries)

The United States is not daily-cases warmspot, at only 70 DCPM:

The United States is very close to a daily-cases warmspot, at just under 1% growth in daily cases, and warming:

Sweden

Sweden, oddly, has resurged from Europe’s general recovery, and is showing the problematic combination of being a daily-cases warmspot (104 DCPM), and very warm growth warmspot (4.2% growth in new daily cases and rising:

States of the United States

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Hotspots

There are no state daily-cases hotspots (>200 DCPM). Growth hotspot states (>5%) are Arkansas, South Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Alabama.

The Gang of Six: Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, North and South Carolina, and Utah

These six states continue to be the COVID-19 news for the United States. All are daily-cases warmspots (>100 DCPM):

If these were countries, they would be in the top 10 warmest countries worldwide.

All six are also growing rapidly, from 3% daily for North Carolina, to 8% daily for Arkansas. With the exception of North Carolina, the growth of all is accelerating:

None of these six, however, are currently hotspots (>200 DCPM). Recall that New York at its worst was around 1400 DCPM, so these six states are not in that kind of trouble yet. It will take months for them to get there, if they do. From my own examination of many such graphs over the past few months, I consider it much more likely that they will peak in the low hundreds in the next couple weeks, and then recover.

Whereas almost all states are showing a steady decline in the number of positive tests, these six states all show the number of positive tests rising. This suggests (but does not prove) that these states are not just seeing the rises in new cases due to higher testing, but due to rising numbers of actual new infections:

California (among the States)

California is still not even warm in daily cases (it is at 86 DCPM, below the 100 DCPM definition of “warm”), but it just had its first warm day, and is trending in that direction:

California is growth warmspot, at 2.4% growth in daily cases. Its latest data point, an average of the growth rates of the past seven days, is an alarming 5.8%, which if persisted, would qualify it as a growth hotspot. One datapoint does not make a trend, so we’ll keep an eye on this:

California Counties

Interactive source graphs, where you can select regions, zoom, etc., are here.

Hotspots and Warmspots

Imperial and Kings continue to be the state’s daily-cases warmspots, at 800 DCPM and 240 DCPM, respectively.

Los Angeles is a daily-cases warmspot at 144 DCPM; Riverside has just become a daily-cases warmspot, rising to 101 DCPM.

Most Warm Counties Are Getting Worse

Almost all of the top-25 counties in DCPM, are also growing. Use the interactive version to zoom in on particular counties (or hover in that version to see which is which) to see which line is which; but the worst, top to bottom, are Madera (red) at 14%, and San Luis Obispo (top orange) at 11%. These are very high growth rates:

The thicker horizontal line is the zero line; almost all counties are above this line, indicating daily growth of new cases. The major exceptions are Kings (bottom purple) and Imperial (bottom blue). On the bright side, those two are the hottest counties in daily cases, so the worst two counties, are also the ones which are recovering.

If the other counties follow the trajectories of past regions, they will likely rise linearly, peak in the next few weeks, and fall in a slightly-slower linear rate than they rose. This is not certain, however, nor deduced from these graph; it is just likely based on past trajectories.

Los Angeles

Los Angeles has contributed half of the total cases of California, so its trajectory has a major impact on the trajectory of California.

As shown in the graph above, Los Angeles is not a daily-cases hotspot, but it is a daily-cases warmspot at 144 DCPM. It is also a growth warmspot (but not a growth hotspot) at 1.5%:

Definitions

DCPM	Daily cases per million
Daily-cases warmspot	>100 DCPM but <200 DCPM
Daily-cases hotspot	>200 DCPM
Growth warmspot	>1% daily growth in new cases
Growth hotspot	>5% daily growth in new cases

This is summary of COVID-19 trends today, by countries, US states, and California counties.

Graph of the Day

That’s Brazil, turning the corner toward negative growth of daily new cases. I.e., that’s Brazil starting to recover:

Countries of the World

Summary: daily cases: cold (17 DCPM); growth : cool (0.9% and slightly cooling)

Source graphs are here.

• There are five daily-cases hotspot counties (>200 daily cases per million, or DCPM): Qatar (620), Bahrain (410), Chile (350), Oman (240), and Armenia (230).
• Three of those five are still growing in daily cases: Bahrain (2%), Chile (1%), Oman (3%). Armenia is stable at 0% (turning the corner now toward negative growth); and Qatar is now seeing -2% daily growth in new cases.
• However, the growth rate of all five is shrinking (cooling). I.e., all of the hottest countries in daily cases, are trending toward recovery.
• There are six daily-cases warmspots (>100 DCPM): Panama, Brazil, Peru, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Sweden.
• Saudia Arabia is growing at 7% in daily cases, and accelerating in growth rate.
• Sweden is growing 5%, and also accelerating. This puts it wildly at odds with the rest of Europe, which has recovered to the point that no other European countries even appear in my top-25-DCPM graphs.
• Panama is also growing 5%, but its growth rate is decelerating.
• The other three warmspots are quickly cooling now: Brazil, Peru, and Kuwait, all with negative growth and decelerating (Brazil turned the corner just a couple days ago).
• The world as a whole continues to see more new cases every day, with a daily growth rate of 0.9% and decelerating. So, the world as a whole has just just transitioned from “warm” (>1%) to “cool” (<1%) in growth.
• There are about 25 countries which are growth hotspots (>5% daily growth of new cases), all relatively small in population. Georgia (the republic) leads at 20%.
• The United States remains cool at 67 DCPM, and cool at 0.3% growth of new cases. It is neither a daily-cases warmspot, nor a growth warmspot. However, its growth is very slightly accelerating.

United States

Summary: daily cases: cool (67 DCPM); growth : neutral (0.3% and slightly warming)

Source graphs are here.

• There are no daily-cases hotspot states (>200 DCPM).
• There are seven daily-cases warmspot states: Arkansas (140), Arizona (130), North Carolina (120), Maryland (110), Iowa (110), Alabama (110), and Utah (110).
• Three of them are also growth hotspots, a troubling combination: Arkansas (8%), Arizona (6%), and Alabama (6%).
• Utah and North Carolina are growth warmspots at 4% growth in daily new cases.
• Maryland and Iowa are showing negative growth, and have for about a month now; they are definitely on a recovery path.
• South Carolina, while not quite a warmspot at 90 DCPM, is notable as the fastest-growing state of the top-25 in DCPM, at 9% daily. That’s a very fast growth rate and will likely bring it into the warmspot zone very soon.
• California is cool in daily cases at 78 DCPM, but is a growth warmspot at 2% and slightly rising.

California Counties

Summary: daily cases: cool (78 DCPM); growth : warm (2% and stable)

Source graphs are here.

• Imperial county continues to be by far the hardest-hit, white-hot with 800 daily-cases-per-million, or DCPM. Several recent days have had DCPM in excess of 2000.
• Imperial is also a growth hotspot, growing 6% per day.
• The population of Imperial County is 180,000, making it a relatively small contributor to total state numbers (Los Angeles County, with population of 10 million, has had 70,000 total cases so far, versus 4,000 for Imperial).
• Kings County is the only other daily-cases hotspot (220 DCPM).
• Los Angeles is daily-cases warm at 140 DCPM. However, Los Angeles is no longer a growth warmspot (>1%), as its growth rate has just dropped to 0.9%. The growth rate is very slightly declining in Los Angeles.
• There are no other daily-cases warmspot counties.
• The growth hotspots (>5% growth in daily cases) among the top-25-DCPM countiesare San Joaquin (8%), Sutter (8%), Imperial (6%), and Monterey (5%).

This is summary of COVID-19 trends today, by countries, US states, and California counties.

As of today, I’m redefining a “daily case hotspot” to be 200+ DCPM (daily cases per million), down from 500, after reviewing the heights to which the major European countries rose. 500 DCPM does happen, and is happening now, but I’m feeling that 200 DCPM is severe enough to quality as “hot.” The definition of “daily cases warmspot” remains at 100 DCPM.

Countries of the World

Summary: daily cases: cold (17 DCPM); growth : warm (1% and slightly cooling)

Source graphs are here.

• Daily-cases hotspots (>200 DCPM, i.e. daily cases per million) are Qatar (640!), Bahrain (400), Chile (325), Oman (230), and Armenia.
• Daily-cases warmspots (>100 DCPM), are Peru (160), Brazil (160), Panama (150), Kuwait (150), Sweden (110), and Saudi Arabia (110).
• The the countries which made earlier news (China, South Korea, Italy, Spain) are no longer even warm. It is now news, and sparks fear of a “second wave,” when China has a handful of new cases.
• Central/South America continues to be generally warm/hot.
• Brazil is turning the corner right now, today, as its growth trendline has crossed zero toward negative. If this persists, Brazil has peaked and will now begin to drop in daily new cases.
• The United States has never gotten warm as a whole (though it has warm regions), and remains cool at 65 DCPM.
• There are many growth hotspots (>5% daily growth in new cases) among the DCPM-warmest countries: Macedonia, Saudi Arabia, Barhain, Sweden, Moldova, Equador, Azerbaijan, South Africa, Panama, Dominican Republic. These countries are the most troubling because they both (1) have a relatively large number of cases per capita, and (2) Are growing very quickly.
• It is worth noting that most of the largest countries in the world, however, are not hot in either sense. The large countries have mostly seen the virus rise already, and are now seeing it decline.

United States

Summary: daily cases: cool (65 DCPM); growth : neutral (0% and slightly warming)

Source graphs are here.

• There are no daily-cases hotspot states (>200 daily cases per million, or DCPM).
• These states are daily-cases warmspots (>100 DCPM): Arkansas, Maryland, Iowa, North Carolina, Nebraska, Arizona, and Alabama. All are just slightly warm: under 130 DCPM.
• In other words, there aren’t any states that currently have a lot of cases, adjusted for population. New York at its peak had 1400 DCPM; no current state is even 10% of that.
• However, there are a lot of growth hotspots right now, i.e. states which are seeing a more that 5% daily growth in new cases.
• These growth hotspots are South Carolina (8% daily growth in new cases), Arkansas (8%), Arizona (7%), Nevada (5%), and Alabama (5%).
• Furthermore, all of these growth hotspots are accelerating: they are seeing their already-high growth rates, rising daily.
• So this is a concerning combination—high growth of new cases and warming—but because none of these states have very many cases, historically speaking, it is not yet a calamity. Only if this persists for months will it be a calamity.
• The trajectory of past COVID-19 graphs, for regions now mostly recovered, suggests that this will not go on like this for months. But it’s possible.
• On the whole, about half of states are growing, while the other half are shrinking.
• California remains cool at 75 DCPM, but is a growth warmspot at 3% daily growth.
• Testing is very good for all states, from about 4% of population tested for the worst, to 18% for the best.
• Almost all states are testing less than 10% positive at this point. For the mostly-recovered first-wave states of New York and New Jersey, it’s 1% positive. For recovering second-wave states it is also very low: Michigan (1%) and Illinois (3%) and Louisiana (5%)

California Counties

Summary: daily cases: cool (75 DCPM); growth : warm (3% and stable)

Source graphs are here.

• Los Angeles remains by far the largest source of daily cases; the state’s numbers generally follow Los Angeles, and will continue to until some other counties start to have total numbers in the ballpark of Los Angeles.
• Los Angeles is, however, neither a daily-cases hotspot nor a growth hotspot. Daily cases per million (DCPM) is 130, which makes it “warm” but not “hot.” Growth is 1% daily, which is warm.
• The only daily-cases hotspot counties are Imperial (730 DCPM) and Kings (260 DCPM).
• The only daily-cases warmspot is Los Angeles (130 DCPM).
• So by population, almost all counties have relatively few cases.
• However, there are many growth hotspots which, if they persist, will eventually result in daily-cases hotspot counties. These are Madera (10% growth in daily cases), Stanislaus (8%), San Joaquin (7%), Contra Costa (7%), Monterey (6%), Riverside (5%), and Merced (5%).
• Most other counties are daily-cases warmspots (>1% growth).
• Just a handful are cooling in daily growth. Notable among these is Imperial, which remains a daily-cases hotspot but has finally peaked and is declining.